Listy Biometryczne - Biometrical Letters Vol. 33(1996), No. 2, 71-77
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SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS, A FORECASTING APPROACH TO ADJUSTING FOR REPORTING DELAYS Antonino Salvaggio Istituto di Igiene e Medicina Preventiva, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Via F.Sforza 35, 20122 Milano, Italy |
The author presents a forecasting model to adjust for reporting delays acąuired im-mune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance data. This model allows adjustment as well as forecasting, and an easy treatment of situations in which calendar time of diagnosis and reporting delay for all incident cases arę not available. It has been em-ployed to analizę AIDS incidence data reported from Lombardia, estimating inflating factors up to five years, and adjusting AIDS incidence counts.
AIDS incidence, forecasting, reporting delay, statistical model
